Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding (the highest number I've seen) and 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.
If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.
If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.
Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
Air America Radio, and you can take this or leave this, is saying that while Republicans are publicly claiming "victory" and waiting for Kerry's conceit, they are infact sending bus and plane loads of Republican activitsts to Ohio, similar to Florida and 2000, in anticipation of a recount.
As Drudge would say,