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 Post subject: Hold on a minute
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:31 am 
Godzilla
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Quote:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/95349/1374

Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221

If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding (the highest number I've seen) and 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.

If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.

Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.


Air America Radio, and you can take this or leave this, is saying that while Republicans are publicly claiming "victory" and waiting for Kerry's conceit, they are infact sending bus and plane loads of Republican activitsts to Ohio, similar to Florida and 2000, in anticipation of a recount.

As Drudge would say,
developing....

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 Post subject: Re: Hold on a minute
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:39 am 
Donewaiting.com Staff
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timstepford wrote:
Quote:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/95349/1374

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

[quote]

With the Ohio vote split almost right down the middle, I'd find it highly unlikely that 85% of the ballots prove to be for Kerry. Don't you think the provisional ballots will most likely reflect the "real" ballots and be more of a 50/50 thing? I hope I'm wrong and that 90% of the ballots are in Kerry's favor.


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 Post subject: Re: Hold on a minute
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:54 am 
Jet Jaguar
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Chip wrote:
timstepford wrote:
Quote:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/95349/1374

If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.

Quote:

With the Ohio vote split almost right down the middle, I'd find it highly unlikely that 85% of the ballots prove to be for Kerry. Don't you think the provisional ballots will most likely reflect the "real" ballots and be more of a 50/50 thing? I hope I'm wrong and that 90% of the ballots are in Kerry's favor.



i'm sure the data is out there, but does anyone know the variance in the gore bush election in ohio? was it heavily gore - 85%? i highly doubt it.

this is some interesting stuff.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 11:59 am 
Godzilla

Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2003 11:04 am
Posts: 2897
if you do the math on those numbers in the article it doesn't add up. even assuming they are talking about 200,000 and 175,000 ballots being AFTER subtracting 10% for non-qualifying ballots it still doesn't add up.

I agree, counting on 85% for kerry is a LONG shot. The possibility is there but it looks like a very very small possibility.

Quote:
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.


That is before taking into account that if Kerry gets 85% then bush will get 15%. that lowers the margin of victory to 21,279 votes even under their "best case" scenario.

Running the numbers and actually giving bush credit for the remaining 15%, if there were only 200,000 provisional ballots, Bush would still lead with a margin of 10,221 votes assuming the 10% non-accepted and 85/15 split.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 12:10 pm 
Jet Jaguar
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it's over.

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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Nov 03, 2004 2:12 pm 
Godzilla
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soporjoe1 wrote:


Quitter.

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